San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 7.6% exact-price projected EV and a 3.5-point probability edge versus a 4.6% release floor. The 2.1% uncertainty-adjusted lower EV remains visible for risk audit, while the allocator applies that uncertainty once through conservative stake sizing. Projected score: 6.07-4.80 (10.87 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: San Diego Padres 8 @ Colorado Rockies 7 · margin -1 vs 1.5

Available related receipts

• MLB

  San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

  Under 11 11 · 9/14/2026
  loss
• MLB

  New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins

  Over 8.5 8.5 · 9/14/2026
  win
• MLB

  Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks

  Arizona Diamondbacks · 9/14/2026
  win
• MLB

  Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks

  Under 8 8 · 9/14/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

  Under 8.5 8.5 · 9/15/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs

  Under 8.5 8.5 · 9/15/2026
  loss