St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 34.3% EV (19.7-point probability edge) versus a 4.0% risk-adjusted release floor. Projected score: 3.75-3.72 (7.47 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v1.1.0-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 20,000 seeded plate appearances with starter hooks, bullpen transitions, base/out state, weather, park, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: St. Louis Cardinals 7 @ Arizona Diamondbacks 8 · total 15 vs 9

Available related receipts

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• MLB

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