MLBAug 15, 2026, 11:20 AM

St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 9.5 (-120)
total · evidence score 77/100 · 1u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 7.0% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (12.6% raw projected EV) and a 6.9-point probability edge versus a 4.0% release floor. The public tier follows that conservative EV after all modeled lineup and calibration uncertainty. Projected score: 3.79-4.66 (8.44 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: St. Louis Cardinals 8 @ Chicago Cubs 4 · total 12 vs 9.5

Closing line: 9

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