MLBJul 31, 2026, 4:07 PM

St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 7.5 (+102)
total · evidence score 96/100 · 3u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 14.8% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 5.4% (7.3-point probability edge) versus a 4.1% release floor. Projected score: 3.29-3.85 (7.13 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: St. Louis Cardinals 1 @ Toronto Blue Jays 3 · total 4 vs 7.5

Closing line: 7.5

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