Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 18.2% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 8.8% (8.8-point probability edge) versus a 4.2% release floor. Projected score: 3.65-4.39 (8.04 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Texas Rangers 3 @ Houston Astros 7

Available related receipts

• MLB

  Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros

  Houston Astros +1.5 1.5 · 8/2/2026
  win
• MLB

  Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros

  Houston Astros · 8/1/2026
  win
• MLB

  Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros

  Houston Astros · 7/31/2026
  win
• MLB

  Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros

  Hunter Brown Under 5.5 Ks 5.5 · 7/31/2026
  win
• MLB

  San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres

  San Francisco Giants · 8/2/2026
  loss
• MLB

  San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres

  Landen Roupp Under 4.5 Ks 4.5 · 8/2/2026
  loss