FC Dallas @ Portland Timbers

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 11.3% EV (5.6-point probability edge) versus a 7.8% risk-adjusted release floor. Projected score: 1.88-1.70 (3.58 total). Model: mls_goal_model soccer-event-sim-v2.0.0-ts. Inputs: projected starting XIs → 30,000 seeded 90-minute match-event simulations with shared tempo, game state, player shot allocation, goalkeeper saves, cards/red-card effects, exact scores and regulation draws → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: FC Dallas 2 @ Portland Timbers 2

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