Houston Cougars @ Texas Tech Red Raiders

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 38.9% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 28.1% (20.2-point probability edge) versus a 5.5% release floor. Projected score: 7.72-34.42 (42.15 total). Model: football_possession_sim_v2 football-possession-sim-v2.0.0-ts. Inputs: 50,000 seeded NCAAF possession simulations with down-and-distance, clock, score state, play calling, sacks, turnovers, penalties, fourth downs, field goals, punts, overtime and player allocation inside one coherent game world. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Houston Cougars 26 @ Texas Tech Red Raiders 28 · margin +2 vs -7.5

Available related receipts

• NCAAF

  Portland State Vikings @ Oregon Ducks

  Under 70 70 · 9/18/2026
  loss
• NCAAF

  Syracuse Orange @ Pittsburgh Panthers

  Pittsburgh Panthers -10.5 -10.5 · 9/17/2026
  win
• NCAAF

  Tulane Green Wave @ Kansas State Wildcats

  Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 -20.5 · 9/19/2026
  loss
• NCAAF

  Mercer Bears @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

  Mercer Bears +38.5 38.5 · 9/19/2026
  win
• NCAAF

  Akron Zips @ Minnesota Golden Gophers

  Over 49 49 · 9/19/2026
  loss
• NCAAF

  Bowling Green Falcons @ Iowa State Cyclones

  Under 43.5 43.5 · 9/19/2026
  loss