North Carolina Tar Heels @ Clemson Tigers

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 36.4% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 25.9% (18.9-point probability edge) versus a 5.5% release floor. Projected score: 10.90-19.15 (30.05 total). Model: football_possession_sim_v2 football-possession-sim-v2.0.0-ts. Inputs: 50,000 seeded NCAAF possession simulations with down-and-distance, clock, score state, play calling, sacks, turnovers, penalties, fourth downs, field goals, punts, overtime and player allocation inside one coherent game world. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: North Carolina Tar Heels 20 @ Clemson Tigers 28 · total 48 vs 44.5

Available related receipts

• NCAAF

  Temple Owls @ Toledo Rockets

  Toledo Rockets -5 -5 · 9/19/2026
  loss
• NCAAF

  Arizona State Sun Devils @ Kansas Jayhawks

  Kansas Jayhawks · 9/19/2026
  loss
• NCAAF

  Wagner Seahawks @ California Golden Bears

  Under 65.5 65.5 · 9/19/2026
  win
• NCAAF

  UTEP Miners @ Michigan Wolverines

  Under 48.5 48.5 · 9/19/2026
  loss
• NCAAF

  Duquesne Dukes @ Washington State Cougars

  Duquesne Dukes +38.5 38.5 · 9/19/2026
  loss
• NCAAF

  Ball State Cardinals @ Liberty Flames

  Under 49 49 · 9/19/2026
  loss