Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ Indiana Hoosiers

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 16.3% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 6.8% (8.5-point probability edge) versus a 5.5% release floor. Projected score: 1.44-51.26 (52.70 total). Model: football_possession_sim_v2 football-possession-sim-v2.0.0-ts. Inputs: 50,000 seeded NCAAF possession simulations with down-and-distance, clock, score state, play calling, sacks, turnovers, penalties, fourth downs, field goals, punts, overtime and player allocation inside one coherent game world. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 0 @ Indiana Hoosiers 38 · margin +38 vs -44.5

Available related receipts

• NCAAF

  Northern Iowa Panthers @ Iowa Hawkeyes

  Northern Iowa Panthers +37.5 37.5 · 9/19/2026
  loss
• NCAAF

  Stanford Cardinal @ Duke Blue Devils

  Duke Blue Devils -10 -10 · 9/19/2026
  win
• NCAAF

  Louisiana Tech Bulldogs @ Baylor Bears

  Under 50.5 50.5 · 9/19/2026
  loss
• NCAAF

  Mississippi State Bulldogs @ South Carolina Gamecocks

  Over 59 59 · 9/19/2026
  win
• NCAAF

  East Carolina Pirates @ Old Dominion Monarchs

  Old Dominion Monarchs -3 -3 · 9/19/2026
  loss
• NCAAF

  Marshall Thundering Herd @ Missouri State Bears

  Missouri State Bears · 9/19/2026
  loss