TENNISJun 17, 2026, 7:50 AM

Daniil Medvedev @ Terence Atmane

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick

Over 22.5 (-103)

total · evidence score 70/100 · 3u official

Result

Lost

Published pick reasoning

Forge (Scout·Sharp·Model): Scout 65% strong on matchup/injury read + Sharp 65% confirmed. This pick is driven by a 2-1 agent consensus, with the Expert and Analyst agents backing the Over. The primary signal is a strong Reverse Line Movement (RLM), where the line has moved toward the Over despite the majority of public bets going on the Under, as noted by the Analyst. This is supported by positive LINE_SHOP_VALUE. While the Quant model finds a slight edge on the Under based on the PINNACLE FAIR line, the strong market-based signals and agent consensus favor the Over. The stake is based on moderate confidence, driven by a 2-1 agent majority and a strong RLM signal, but tempered by the negative EV and disagreement from our Quant model. [SIGNALS FIRED] 4 pattern(s), 3 cluster(s) → deterministic confidence 63 (BASIC, expected ROI 1.0%): • ENSEMBLE_SPLIT — 47.2% WR (n≈500): Model disagreement means the edge is less stable than it first appears • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_LINE_DISAGREE — 57.7% WR (n≈790): Sharp books disagree with the public consensus on the line — primary sharp-money signal • LINE_SHOP_VALUE — 53.0% WR (n≈900): Multiple books disagree enough that price shopping creates edge • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — 47.0% WR (n≈800): Missing data lowers certainty; keep confidence capped

Result notes

Final: Daniil Medvedev 12 @ Terence Atmane 8 · total 20 vs 22.5

Closing line: 22.5

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