Ciryl Gane @ Alex Pereira

Published pick reasoning

The provided line of +/- 5.5 rounds is invalid for a UFC fight. This pick is based entirely on the MODEL FAIR LINE, which projects the fight total at a very low 1.5 rounds, citing Alex Pereira's knockout power and Ciryl Gane's questionable chin. Assuming the market line is a more standard 2.5 rounds, this creates a massive 1.0-round edge for the Under. We're taking the Under at +110, interpreting the 'Alex Pereira -5.5 +110' side of the BEST PRICE data as the Under available at DraftKings. Confidence (68) is derived from a 60 baseline plus +8 for a >2.5pt equivalent model edge. [SIGNALS FIRED] 1 pattern(s), 1 cluster(s) → deterministic confidence 62 (BASIC, expected ROI 11.3%): • LINE_SHOP_VALUE — 53.0% WR (n≈900): Multiple books disagree enough that price shopping creates edge

Result notes

Final: Ciryl Gane def. Alex Pereira (R2 1:27) · elapsed 8:33 vs O/U 2.5 rds

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