Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks: Over 9.5 (-105) lost — MLB AI Pick Recap

Recap of our MLB AI total pick on Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks. The play (Over 9.5 at -105, 3★ confidence) lost.

Matchup

Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Pick

Over 9.5

Odds

-105

Confidence

★★★☆☆

Why we made this MLB total pick

The Pinnacle fair line for Over 9.5 is +105 (48.7%), giving us an EV of -4.8% at -105. Both bullpens are fresh. Brewers SP Brandon Sproat has an ERA of 5.28 and WHIP of 1.33. Diamondbacks SP Eduardo Rodriguez has a strong ERA of 2.21 and WHIP of 1.18. Chase Field is slightly hitter-friendly (Run 104, HR 105). The temperature is 101°F with low humidity which would typically favor the over. The Brewers have a must-win situation which could lead to more aggressive offense. Both teams are on a getaway day. The Diamondbacks' offense has a low OPS of 0.661 vs RHP. Sized at 2u — confidence 65, but with converging signals despite the negative EV. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=5027 / 53.3% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4446 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=2351 / 51.8% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 53.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_GAME3_ROAD_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=16/20) / n=2243 / 51.7% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER / n=1800 / 51.6% WR / healthy • MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~alias:MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER / n=1464 / 53.2% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=215 / 49.4% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=180 / 50.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • LINE_DISPERSION_TIGHT — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=25 / 44.0% WR / unproven • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=172 / 47.3% WR / toxic_fadeable • LINE_VELOCITY_AGAINST — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=68 / 45.6% WR / unproven • +5 more signal tag(s)