Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals: Over 10 (-105) lost — MLB AI Pick Recap

Recap of our MLB AI total pick on Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals. The play (Over 10 at -105, 3★ confidence) lost.

Matchup

Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals

Pick

Over 10

Odds

-105

Confidence

★★★☆☆

Why we made this MLB total pick

The Philadelphia Phillies and Kansas City Royals total of 10 is showing negative EV for the Over. The HP Umpire, Roberto Ortiz, has an over lean with 9.9 R/g (+0.81 vs lg, n=15). The Philadelphia Phillies starter, Aaron Nola, has a 6.04 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, and the Kansas City Royals starter, Luinder Avila, has a 5.40 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. Both are high for starting pitchers. Therefore, I will lean over. Sized at 2u — confidence 67, minor positive signals, no strong EV. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=5027 / 53.3% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER / n=3533 / 51.9% WR / healthy • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=3533 / 51.9% WR / healthy • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=8/20) / n=2857 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER / n=1800 / 51.6% WR / healthy • MLB_DAY_AFTER_NIGHT_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=548 / 49.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • TEAM_AGE_OLD_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=326 / 48.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=215 / 49.4% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=180 / 50.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • LINE_DISPERSION_TIGHT — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=25 / 44.0% WR / unproven • MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=16 / 62.5% WR / healthy / context-derived