New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays: Under 7.5 (+100) lost — MLB AI Pick Recap

Recap of our MLB AI total pick on New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays. The play (Under 7.5 at +100, 3★ confidence) lost.

Matchup

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays

Pick

Under 7.5

Odds

+100

Confidence

★★★☆☆

Why we made this MLB total pick

The model leans towards the Under 7.5. The Pinnacle fair line is Under 7.5 +108 (48.1%). Tropicana Field is a pitcher-friendly park (Run 95, HR 92), and both bullpens are FRESH. The Yankees' starting pitcher Will Warren has a low HR/9 (1.01), and Rays' starter Ian Seymour has a solid K/9 (9.64) and low AVG (.199). The Yankees are on 0 days rest, traveled, and are experiencing mild fatigue. The Rays have LASOR mild and STAKES mild, adding some uncertainty. The PUBLIC_BIAS_UNDER_OVERLOAD suggests books are shading towards OVER value, so the Under pick fades this bias. The SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_TOTAL disagreement, with Pinnacle implying a shorter total than the public median, also supports the Under. The CLV for DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW (1.24%) is positive, but STEAM_WITH has a negative historical CLV (-3.04%). [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1474 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=752 / 49.6% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_PARK_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=16/20) / n=487 / 52.4% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=13 / 55.8% WR / unproven / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=6 / 33.3% WR / unproven / context-derived • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=210 / 45.4% WR / toxic_fadeable • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=97 / 52.6% WR / unproven • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_LINE_DISAGREE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=71 / 50.7% WR / unproven • PUBLIC_CONTRARIAN_EV — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=53 / 52.8% WR / unproven • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_ML_DISAGREE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=52 / 65.4% WR / healthy • PUBLIC_BIAS_OVER_OVERLOAD — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=42 / 52.4% WR / unproven • +15 more signal tag(s)