Kansas City Royals at New York Mets: Francisco Alvarez Under 0.5 hits (+160) lost — MLB AI Pick Recap
Recap of our MLB AI player_prop pick on Kansas City Royals at New York Mets. The play (Francisco Alvarez Under 0.5 hits at +160, 1★ confidence) lost.
Why we made this MLB player_prop pick
Judgment prop — picked by signal angles MLB_PARK_PITCHER_UNDER + MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER + MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER. Median retail +160 across 2 books (implied 38.5%); no Pinnacle pair on this exact line (unanchored). PROJ: 33.5% Under — 0.226/PA × 4.2 PA (slot 5) → mean 0.96 (no anchor to compare). [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=963 / 48.5% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=783 / 52.1% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=783 / 54.1% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=752 / 49.6% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_SERIES_GAME3_ROAD_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=738 / 54.7% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_PARK_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=487 / 54.8% WR / healthy • MLB_DAY_AFTER_NIGHT_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=212 / 50.0% WR / toxic_fadeable
How the Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets pick lost
Francisco Alvarez finished with 1 (H) vs line 0.5