Boston Red Sox at New York Mets: Jarren Duran Under 0.5 hits (+115) cashed — MLB AI Pick Recap
Recap of our MLB AI player_prop pick on Boston Red Sox at New York Mets. The play (Jarren Duran Under 0.5 hits at +115, 1★ confidence) cashed.
Why we made this MLB player_prop pick
Judgment prop — picked by signal angles MLB_PARK_PITCHER_UNDER + MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER. Median retail +115 across 2 books (implied 46.5%); no Pinnacle pair on this exact line (unanchored). PROJ: 44.8% Under — 0.180/PA × 4.0 PA (lineup unposted) → mean 0.73; vs RHP split used (273 PA); SP Freddy Peralta allows +3% vs league; BvP vs Freddy Peralta: 3-for-5 career (no anchor to compare). [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=963 / 48.5% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_PARK_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=487 / 54.8% WR / healthy • MLB_DAY_AFTER_NIGHT_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=212 / 50.0% WR / toxic_fadeable
How the Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets pick cashed
Jarren Duran finished with 0 (H) vs line 0.5