Boston Red Sox at New York Mets: Jarren Duran Over 0.5 RBIs (+185) lost — MLB AI Pick Recap
Recap of our MLB AI player_prop pick on Boston Red Sox at New York Mets. The play (Jarren Duran Over 0.5 RBIs at +185, 1★ confidence) lost.
Why we made this MLB player_prop pick
Judgment prop — picked by signal angle MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER. Median retail +185 across 2 books (implied 35.1%); no Pinnacle pair on this exact line (unanchored). PROJ: 38.5% Over — 0.120/PA × 4.0 PA (lineup unposted) → mean 0.49 (no anchor to compare). [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1474 / 53.0% WR / healthy • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_PARK_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=487 / 54.8% WR / healthy / context-derived
How the Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets pick lost
Jarren Duran finished with 0 (RBI) vs line 0.5