Boston Red Sox at New York Mets: Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 hits (+125) lost — MLB AI Pick Recap
Recap of our MLB AI player_prop pick on Boston Red Sox at New York Mets. The play (Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 hits at +125, 1★ confidence) lost.
Why we made this MLB player_prop pick
Judgment prop — picked by signal angle MLB_PARK_PITCHER_UNDER. Median retail +125 across 2 books (implied 44.4%); no Pinnacle pair on this exact line (unanchored). PROJ: 39.0% Under — 0.207/PA × 4.0 PA (lineup unposted) → mean 0.84 (no anchor to compare). [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1474 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_PARK_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=487 / 54.8% WR / healthy
How the Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets pick lost
Caleb Durbin finished with 1 (H) vs line 0.5