Boston Red Sox at New York Mets: Jorge Polanco Over 0.5 hits (-160) lost — MLB AI Pick Recap

Recap of our MLB AI player_prop pick on Boston Red Sox at New York Mets. The play (Jorge Polanco Over 0.5 hits at -160, 3★ confidence) lost.

Matchup

Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets

Pick

Jorge Polanco Over 0.5 hits

Odds

-160

Confidence

★★★☆☆

Why we made this MLB player_prop pick

Judgment prop — picked by signal angles MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER + MLB_PLAYER_PLATOON_EDGE. Median retail -160 across 2 books (implied 61.5%); no Pinnacle pair on this exact line (unanchored). PROJ: 59.0% Over — 0.189/PA × 4.2 PA (slot 5) → mean 0.80; SP Sonny Gray allows -3% vs league; BvP vs Sonny Gray: 1-for-7 career (no anchor to compare). [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1474 / 51.5% WR / healthy • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_PARK_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=487 / 54.8% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_PLAYER_PLATOON_EDGE — MLB / NO_CALIBRATION_ROW_YET / n=0 / WR n/a / unproven