Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers: Bryce Harper Over 0.5 HR (+330) lost — MLB AI Pick Recap
Recap of our MLB AI player_prop pick on Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers. The play (Bryce Harper Over 0.5 HR at +330, 1★ confidence) lost.
Why we made this MLB player_prop pick
Judgment prop — picked by signal angles MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER + MLB_PLATOON_POWER_HR. Median retail +330 across 2 books (implied 23.3%); Pinnacle no-vig fair 20.0% (receipt). PROJ: 19.7% Over — 0.048/PA × 4.4 PA (slot 3) → mean 0.21; vs RHP split used (245 PA); SP Casey Mize allows -25% vs league (-0.2pp vs anchor). [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1474 / 51.5% WR / healthy • MLB_PLATOON_POWER_HR — MLB / NO_CALIBRATION_ROW_YET / n=0 / WR n/a / unproven
How the Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers pick lost
Bryce Harper finished with 0 (HR) vs line 0.5