MLB
26 props
Research
July 11, 2026

MLB Player Prop Research July 11, 2026: Our Numbers on Nick Gonzales, Ryan O'Hearn, Jordan Walker

26 MLB player props our model priced today, each with its hit probability next to the sportsbook's implied odds. Where the two numbers disagree is where the research gets interesting. These are not betting picks — they're the model's read on the market, published for transparency.

Nick GonzalesNick Gonzales Over 0.5 hits 0.5 Hits

Pending
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Odds
-230
Our hit chance
74%
Implied by odds
69.7%

Ryan O'HearnRyan O'Hearn Over 0.5 hits 0.5 Hits

Pending
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Odds
-215
Our hit chance
73%
Implied by odds
68.3%

Jordan WalkerJordan Walker Over 0.5 hits 0.5 Hits

Pending
Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals
Odds
-230
Our hit chance
70%
Implied by odds
69.7%

Christian WalkerChristian Walker Over 0.5 hits 0.5 Hits

Pending
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
Odds
-182
Our hit chance
66%
Implied by odds
64.5%

Ivan HerreraIvan Herrera Over 0.5 hits 0.5 Hits

Pending
Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals
Odds
-239
Our hit chance
65%
Implied by odds
70.5%

Carson KellyCarson Kelly Under 0.5 runs 0.5 Runs Scored

Pending
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
Odds
-130
Our hit chance
65%
Implied by odds
56.5%

Isaac ParedesIsaac Paredes Over 0.5 hits 0.5 Hits

Pending
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
Odds
-177
Our hit chance
64%
Implied by odds
63.9%

William ContrerasWilliam Contreras Under 0.5 RBIs 0.5 RBIs

Pending
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Odds
-215
Our hit chance
61%
Implied by odds
68.3%

TJ FriedlTJ Friedl Over 0.5 hits 0.5 Hits

Pending
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
Odds
-140
Our hit chance
54%
Implied by odds
58.3%

Junior PerezJunior Perez Under 0.5 hits 0.5 Hits

Pending
Oakland Athletics @ Chicago White Sox
Odds
-118
Our hit chance
54%
Implied by odds
54.1%

Jake RogersJake Rogers Under 0.5 hits 0.5 Hits

Pending
Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers
Odds
-130
Our hit chance
50%
Implied by odds
56.5%

Brett BatyBrett Baty Under 0.5 hits 0.5 Hits

Pending
Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets
Odds
+104
Our hit chance
48%
Implied by odds
49%

Luke RaleyLuke Raley Under 0.5 hits 0.5 Hits

Pending
Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays
Odds
-113
Our hit chance
47%
Implied by odds
53.1%

Kody ClemensKody Clemens Over 0.5 runs 0.5 Runs Scored

Pending
Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins
Odds
-110
Our hit chance
45%
Implied by odds
52.4%

Jorge SolerJorge Soler Under 0.5 hits 0.5 Hits

Pending
Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins
Odds
+120
Our hit chance
45%
Implied by odds
45.5%

Royce LewisRoyce Lewis Over 0.5 runs 0.5 Runs Scored

Pending
Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins
Odds
-105
Our hit chance
44%
Implied by odds
51.2%

Victor CaratiniVictor Caratini Over 0.5 RBIs 0.5 RBIs

Pending
Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins
Odds
+173
Our hit chance
42%
Implied by odds
36.6%

Francisco LindorFrancisco Lindor Under 0.5 hits 0.5 Hits

Pending
Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets
Odds
+175
Our hit chance
40%
Implied by odds
36.4%

Dominic CanzoneDominic Canzone Under 0.5 hits 0.5 Hits

Pending
Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays
Odds
+125
Our hit chance
40%
Implied by odds
44.4%

Kyle KarrosKyle Karros Under 0.5 hits 0.5 Hits

Pending
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
Odds
+143
Our hit chance
39%
Implied by odds
41.2%

Matt VierlingMatt Vierling Under 0.5 hits 0.5 Hits

Pending
Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers
Odds
+185
Our hit chance
37%
Implied by odds
35.1%

TJ RumfieldTJ Rumfield Under 0.5 hits 0.5 Hits

Pending
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
Odds
+129
Our hit chance
37%
Implied by odds
43.7%

Brooks LeeBrooks Lee Over 1.5 hits 1.5 Hits

Pending
Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins
Odds
+172
Our hit chance
36%
Implied by odds
36.8%

Randy ArozarenaRandy Arozarena Over 0.5 RBIs 0.5 RBIs

Pending
Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays
Odds
+215
Our hit chance
35%
Implied by odds
31.7%

Nico HoernerNico Hoerner Over 1.5 hits 1.5 Hits

Pending
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
Odds
+170
Our hit chance
33%
Implied by odds
37%

Brandon LoweBrandon Lowe Over 0.5 HR 0.5 Home Runs

Pending
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Odds
+380
Our hit chance
25%
Implied by odds
20.8%
What this is (and isn't)

These props are research from the same calibrated engine that runs our board — the model's hit probability vs the market's implied number, graded after games for accuracy. They are not picks and are not part of our tracked betting record. For the actual picks we publish and stand behind, grab today's free pick — or learn how odds convert to probabilities.

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