MLBJul 9, 2026, 3:41 PM

Athletics @ Detroit Tigers

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Detroit Tigers -1.5 (+160)
spread · evidence score 65/100 · 2u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

The Detroit Tigers -1.5 is a lean pick with a confidence of 61. While the EV signal is negative for both sides, the Pinnacle fair line suggests some value on the Tigers. My model has very little edge in this market, which is reflected in its confidence score. The Detroit Tigers have a better L10 record (7-3) compared to the Athletics (1-9), and a better RS/g and RA/g delta (5.8 RS/g - 3.9 RA/g = 1.9) compared to the Athletics (3.5 RS/g - 6.8 RA/g = -3.3). The Athletics' bullpen is tired, which could be a factor if the game goes long, though the Tigers' bullpen is fresh. The RHP pitcher for the Athletics has a significantly higher ERA (6.75) than the LHP for the Tigers (4.29). The Athletics are also on a getaway day and dealing with possible storms, which could lead to a postponement or delay. This pick is a lean, rather than a strong play because the EV is negative, and the line velocity details show the market moving against us. [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1876 / 48.9% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1850 / 51.9% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1474 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=783 / 52.1% WR / healthy • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=783 / 54.1% WR / healthy • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER / n=752 / 49.6% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_SERIES_GAME3_ROAD_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=738 / 54.7% WR / healthy • MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~alias:MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER / n=488 / 58.4% WR / healthy • LINE_DISPERSION_SOFT — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=94 / 47.9% WR / unproven • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=13 / 55.8% WR / unproven • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME / n=13 / 55.8% WR / unproven • +4 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Athletics 1 @ Detroit Tigers 4 · margin +3 vs -1.5

Closing line: -1.5

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