Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds

Published pick reasoning

Sized at 2u — confidence 67, the Phillies have a clear pitching advantage and are on a getaway day. The Phillies have a favorable pitching matchup with Jesús Luzardo (ERA 3.75, WHIP 1.27) facing Brady Singer (ERA 5.03, WHIP 1.54). Luzardo also boasts a higher K/9 (10.89 vs 7.76) and lower BB/9 (2.87 vs 3.28) and HR/9 (0.78 vs 2.19). Although both bullpens are tired, the Phillies have a better L10 record (5-5) compared to the Reds (3-7). The Phillies also have a runaway edge in this matchup when looking at the RS/g and RA/g from their L10: 4.9 RS/g - 6.0 RA/g compared to the Reds' 3.8 RS/g - 4.9 RA/g. The GABP park factor will also favor the over, which aligns with the strong offensive numbers of the Phillies. This pick has slightly negative EV, but the pitching and offensive statistics support the Phillies. [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1876 / 48.9% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1850 / 51.9% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1474 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=783 / 52.1% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=783 / 54.1% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER / n=752 / 49.6% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_SERIES_GAME3_ROAD_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=738 / 54.7% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SP_HOT_FORM — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=636 / 52.1% WR / healthy • MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~alias:MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER / n=488 / 58.4% WR / healthy • LINE_VELOCITY_AGAINST — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=119 / 49.6% WR / toxic_fadeable • LINE_DISPERSION_TIGHT — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=73 / 55.6% WR / unproven • +1 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Philadelphia Phillies 1 @ Cincinnati Reds 0 · margin +1 vs -1.5

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