MLBJul 10, 2026, 3:41 PM

Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+168)
spread · evidence score 63/100 · 1u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

Numbers-first live pick: side locked by best positive market edge before AI narration. EV unavailable; using market-dislocation signals. Best available price +168 @ fanduel. Pinnacle fair: Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 -181 (64.5%) / Detroit Tigers -1.5 +181 (35.5%). EV board: Philadelphia Phillies +1.5: -2.5% (best -195 @ fanatics) | Detroit Tigers -1.5: -4.1% (best +170 @ bovada). Sharp/public: SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_SPREAD: Pinnacle -1.5 vs public median 1.5 on Detroit Tigers (Δ-3pt — sharps disagree with public shorter). Market signals: STEAM: 6 books range 3pts (median 1.5) || BOOK_DISAGREEMENT_HIGH: line spread 3pts across US books || PRICE_DISPERSION: 383c spread across US books (volatility, not edge). [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1474 / 51.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=752 / 49.6% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=13 / 55.8% WR / unproven / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=6 / 33.3% WR / unproven / context-derived • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=134 / 53.8% WR / healthy • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_LINE_DISAGREE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=108 / 50.9% WR / toxic_fadeable • STEAM_WITH — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=108 / 49.1% WR / toxic_fadeable • STEAM_STALLED — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=107 / 47.7% WR / toxic_fadeable • PUBLIC_CONTRARIAN_EV — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=89 / 55.1% WR / unproven • +17 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Philadelphia Phillies 2 @ Detroit Tigers 10 · margin -8 vs -1.5

Closing line: -1.5

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