MLBJul 10, 2026, 3:41 PM

Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 9 (-119)
total · evidence score 63/100 · 1u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

The Pinnacle fair line of Under 9 -111 suggests a slight edge for the Under, despite the lack of significant EV. The PUBLIC_BIAS_OVER_OVERLOAD signal suggests books are shading prices away from the public-loaded Over side, making the Under a contrarian play. However, the LINE_VELOCITY shows that the Under 9 price has stalled in the last 2 hours, indicating less sharp action. Both starting pitchers have high K/9 rates and the park is pitcher-friendly (Run 95, HR 88). Sized at 1u — borderline confidence with limited strong signals. [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1474 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=13 / 55.8% WR / unproven / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=6 / 33.3% WR / unproven / context-derived • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=132 / 53.8% WR / healthy • STEAM_WITH — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=108 / 49.1% WR / toxic_fadeable • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_LINE_DISAGREE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=108 / 50.9% WR / toxic_fadeable • STEAM_STALLED — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=107 / 47.7% WR / toxic_fadeable • PUBLIC_CONTRARIAN_EV — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=87 / 55.2% WR / unproven • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_ML_DISAGREE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=86 / 62.8% WR / healthy • PUBLIC_BIAS_OVER_OVERLOAD — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=76 / 55.3% WR / unproven • +12 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Philadelphia Phillies 2 @ Detroit Tigers 10 · total 12 vs 9

Closing line: 8.5

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