MLBJul 10, 2026, 4:11 PM

Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Miami Marlins +1.5 (-196)
spread · evidence score 61/100 · 1u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

The Miami Marlins have significantly better recent form, going 5-0 in their last 5 games and 8-2 in their last 10, while the Guardians are 1-4 and 4-6 respectively. The Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara is a capable pitcher, though his last few outings have been mixed. Their bullpen is fresh, while the Guardians' is tired. Pinnacle fair price for Marlins -1.5 is +195 (33.9%), offering a -5% EV at +180. The Guardians are on heavy fatigue due to travel and B2B. Sized at 1u — taking the hot hand with a fatigued opponent. [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1876 / 48.9% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~alias:MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY / n=1850 / 51.9% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1850 / 51.9% WR / toxic_fadeable • TRAVEL_LONG_TRIP_3PLUS_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1648 / 51.5% WR / healthy • TRAVEL_LONG_TRIP_3PLUS_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:TRAVEL_LONG_TRIP_3PLUS_AWAY / n=1648 / 51.5% WR / healthy • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1474 / 51.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER / n=752 / 49.6% WR / toxic_fadeable • TRAVEL_GETAWAY_DAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=752 / 52.3% WR / healthy • MLB_PARK_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=487 / 54.8% WR / healthy / context-derived • +11 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Cleveland Guardians 3 @ Miami Marlins 2 · margin -1 vs 1.5

Closing line: 1.5

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