MLBJul 10, 2026, 4:11 PM

Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 8 (+100)
total · evidence score 68/100 · 3u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

The Pinnacle fair line of Under 8.5 -108 (51.8%) suggests an edge towards the Under. The SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_TOTAL signal indicates that Pinnacle (8.5) is higher than the public median (8) on the Over, which implies sharps lean towards the Under. The Tampa Bay Rays' SP, Nick Martinez, has a strong ERA of 2.61 over 100 IP. Both bullpens are fresh. Sized at 1u — no clear strong signals. [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1474 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_PARK_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=487 / 54.8% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=13 / 55.8% WR / unproven / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=6 / 33.3% WR / unproven / context-derived • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=132 / 53.8% WR / healthy • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_LINE_DISAGREE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=108 / 50.9% WR / toxic_fadeable • PUBLIC_CONTRARIAN_EV — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=87 / 55.2% WR / unproven • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_ML_DISAGREE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=86 / 62.8% WR / healthy • PUBLIC_BIAS_OVER_OVERLOAD — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=76 / 55.3% WR / unproven • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_RIDE — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=91 / 56.2% WR / unproven • +12 more signal tag(s)

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Bad Beat

Final total 9 — landed 1 point from the 8 line.

Result notes

Final: Seattle Mariners 2 @ Tampa Bay Rays 7 · total 9 vs 8

Closing line: 7.5

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