MLBJul 10, 2026, 4:06 PM

Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Baltimore Orioles (-149)
moneyline · evidence score 66/100 · 2u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

Sized at 1u — The Orioles are the favored side due to a significant pitching advantage with Brandon Young (ERA 3.38, WHIP 1.36) facing Luinder Avila (ERA 5.05, WHIP 1.59). While the Royals' bullpen is tired, the Orioles' fair line of -147 is close to the market price of -149, leaving minimal EV. We downgrade for the LINE_VELOCITY_AGAINST the Orioles and PUBLIC not leaning our way. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1850 / 51.9% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~alias:MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY / n=1850 / 51.9% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1474 / 51.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1330 / 54.4% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=752 / 49.6% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=13 / 55.8% WR / unproven • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME / n=13 / 55.8% WR / unproven • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=256 / 44.7% WR / toxic_fadeable • LINE_VELOCITY_AGAINST — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=131 / 48.9% WR / toxic_fadeable • +2 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Kansas City Royals 3 @ Baltimore Orioles 5

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