MLBSep 14, 2026, 4:40 PM

Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 9.5 (-114)
total · evidence score 78/100 · 1u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 7.3% exact-price projected EV and a 3.9-point probability edge versus a 4.0% release floor. The 3.0% uncertainty-adjusted lower EV remains visible for risk audit, while the allocator applies that uncertainty once through conservative stake sizing. Projected score: 4.40-4.57 (8.97 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Atlanta Braves 3 @ Chicago Cubs 7 · total 10 vs 9.5

Closing line: 9.5

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Historical audit coverage

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