Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 5.7% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (11.8% raw projected EV) and a 6.2-point probability edge versus a 4.0% release floor. The public tier follows that conservative EV after all modeled lineup and calibration uncertainty. Projected score: 4.41-4.43 (8.84 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Baltimore Orioles 5 @ Minnesota Twins 2 · total 7 vs 9.5

Available related receipts

• MLB

  Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels

  Under 9 9 · 8/11/2026
  win
• MLB

  New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

  Under 8.5 8.5 · 8/11/2026
  win
• MLB

  Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants

  Houston Astros · 8/11/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins

  Under 8.5 8.5 · 8/12/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals

  Under 8 8 · 8/12/2026
  push
• MLB

  Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres

  Under 8 8 · 8/12/2026
  win