MLBJul 8, 2026, 4:41 PM

Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Over 8 (-112)
total · evidence score 73/100 · 3u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

Sized at 3u — confidence 73, public money on the Under, but Pinnacle fair line indicates more value on the Over. Rate Field has a HR Index of 105, which is slightly hitter-friendly. The White Sox have a good OPS vs LHP, matching up against Red Sox LHP Jake Bennett. Both teams are on a getaway day with mild fatigue. The line has stalled, indicating no immediate price change. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1474 / 53.0% WR / healthy • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER / n=752 / 49.6% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~alias:MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER / n=488 / 58.4% WR / healthy • LINE_DISPERSION_TIGHT — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=43 / 49.4% WR / unproven • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=13 / 55.8% WR / unproven / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=6 / 33.3% WR / unproven / context-derived • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=228 / 44.9% WR / toxic_fadeable • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=110 / 53.7% WR / healthy • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_LINE_DISAGREE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=89 / 50.6% WR / unproven • PUBLIC_CONTRARIAN_EV — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=66 / 54.5% WR / unproven • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_ML_DISAGREE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=65 / 64.6% WR / healthy • +15 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Boston Red Sox 5 @ Chicago White Sox 0 · total 5 vs 8

Closing line: 8.5

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