MLBJul 8, 2026, 4:11 PM

Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Over 9 (-115)
total · evidence score 70/100 · 3u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

Sized at 3u — confidence 70, public money on the Under, but Pinnacle fair line indicates more value on the Over. The Phillies have a TBD starter, which adds uncertainty. Great American Ball Park is a hitter-friendly park with a Run Index of 112 and HR Index of 122. Despite the public bias towards the Under, the pricing suggests books are shading towards the Over. The Phillies bullpen is tired, suggesting a potential for more runs if the TBD starter struggles, and both teams are on a getaway day with mild fatigue. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1850 / 51.9% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1474 / 53.0% WR / healthy • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER / n=752 / 49.6% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~alias:MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER / n=488 / 58.4% WR / healthy • MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=488 / 58.4% WR / healthy • TEAM_AGE_OLD_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=83 / 44.9% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • LINE_DISPERSION_TIGHT — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=43 / 49.4% WR / unproven • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=13 / 55.8% WR / unproven / context-derived • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=228 / 44.9% WR / toxic_fadeable • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=110 / 53.7% WR / healthy • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_LINE_DISAGREE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=89 / 50.6% WR / unproven • +18 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Philadelphia Phillies 5 @ Cincinnati Reds 11 · total 16 vs 9

Closing line: 9

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