MLBJul 9, 2026, 9:36 AM

Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Over 9.5 (-112)
total · evidence score 73/100 · 3u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

Numbers-first live pick: side locked by best positive market edge before AI narration. EV unavailable; using market-dislocation signals. Best available price -112 @ draftkings. Pinnacle fair: Over 10 +101 (49.8%) / Under 10 -101 (50.2%). EV board: Over 10: -5% (best -110 @ bovada) | Under 10: -4.1% (best -110 @ bovada). Sharp/public: SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_TOTAL: Pinnacle 10 vs public median 9.5 on Over (Δ+0.5pt — sharps disagree with public longer) || SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_TOTAL: Pinnacle 10 vs public median 9.5 on Under (Δ+0.5pt — sharps disagree with public longer). Market signals: STEAM: 6 books range 0.5pts (median 9.5). [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1330 / 54.4% WR / healthy • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=963 / 48.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=783 / 52.1% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=783 / 54.1% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_GAME3_ROAD_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=738 / 54.7% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_TEAM_BIG_VS_RHP_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=243 / 53.1% WR / healthy • MLB_DAY_AFTER_NIGHT_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=212 / 50.0% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=58 / 56.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=13 / 55.8% WR / unproven / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=6 / 33.3% WR / unproven / context-derived • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=123 / 54.5% WR / healthy • +18 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Atlanta Braves 10 @ Pittsburgh Pirates 5 · total 15 vs 9.5

Closing line: 10

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