MLBJul 31, 2026, 7:10 PM

Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 8.5 (+105)
total · evidence score 89/100 · 2u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 12.0% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 4.7% (5.8-point probability edge) versus a 4.2% release floor. Projected score: 3.60-4.53 (8.13 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Boston Red Sox 9 @ Los Angeles Dodgers 4 · total 13 vs 8.5

Closing line: 8.5

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