MLBAug 2, 2026, 4:20 PM

Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-143)
spread · evidence score 89/100 · 2u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 11.9% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 5.7% (7.0-point probability edge) versus a 4.0% release floor. Projected score: 4.18-3.86 (8.04 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Boston Red Sox 8 @ Los Angeles Dodgers 4 · margin +4 vs 1.5

Closing line: 1.5

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