Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 39.3% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 29.8% (15.0-point probability edge) versus a 6.8% release floor. Projected score: 4.18-3.86 (8.04 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Boston Red Sox 8 @ Los Angeles Dodgers 4

Available related receipts

• MLB

  Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers

  Boston Red Sox +1.5 1.5 · 8/2/2026
  win
• MLB

  San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres

  San Francisco Giants · 8/2/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies

  Washington Nationals · 8/3/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers

  Bubba Chandler Under 4.5 Ks 4.5 · 8/3/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs

  Under 8 8 · 8/3/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies

  Colorado Rockies +1.5 1.5 · 8/3/2026
  loss