San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 19.4% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 8.8% (6.9-point probability edge) versus a 7.8% release floor. Projected score: 3.64-4.00 (7.64 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: San Francisco Giants 4 @ San Diego Padres 5

Available related receipts

• MLB

  San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres

  Landen Roupp Under 4.5 Ks 4.5 · 8/2/2026
  loss
• MLB

  San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres

  Under 8.5 8.5 · 7/31/2026
  win
• MLB

  Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles

  Philadelphia Phillies · 8/2/2026
  win
• MLB

  Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles

  Kyle Bradish Over 5.5 H allowed 5.5 · 8/2/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels

  Milwaukee Brewers · 8/2/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels

  Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -1.5 · 8/2/2026
  loss