MLBJul 12, 2026, 10:41 AM

Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 8 (-106)
total · evidence score 61/100 · 1u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

Sized at 1u — moderate confidence pick on the Under 8. While there is no EV against the Pinnacle fair line, several factors align with an under. First, the home plate umpire, Shane Livensparger, shows a significant under lean with an average of 8.8 runs per game, which is 0.37 runs below the league average over 16 games, indicating a tighter strike zone, earning a +4 confidence boost (MLB_HP_UMP_UNDER_LEAN). Both bullpens are fresh, suggesting they will be effective if called upon. The line velocity has stalled but the best price for the under is -106. The Red Sox are 5-0 in their L5, putting them in a letdown spot, which will lightly suppress their offense, but this is a mild factor. The Mets have a poor OPS of 0.686 against left-handed pitchers, which favors the Under against the Red Sox LHP starter. The model fair line is essentially flat, and the model scores are tightly aligned, suggesting a stable projection. The average CLV for CLV_PRIOR_POSITIVE is 0.53% (n=63) x 1 according to the historical data, but in this pick, the EV for both sides are negative. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1330 / 54.4% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=963 / 48.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=783 / 52.1% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=783 / 54.1% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_GAME3_ROAD_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=738 / 54.7% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER / n=58 / 56.0% WR / healthy • MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=58 / 56.0% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=13 / 55.8% WR / unproven / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=6 / 33.3% WR / unproven / context-derived • LINE_DISPERSION_TIGHT — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME_TOTAL / n=95 / 52.7% WR / unproven • STEAM_WITH — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME_TOTAL / n=50 / 50.0% WR / unproven • +2 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Boston Red Sox 3 @ New York Mets 2 · total 5 vs 8

Closing line: 8

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