New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals

Why the AI made this pick

Numbers-first live pick: side locked by best positive market edge before AI narration. EV unavailable; using market-dislocation signals. Best available price +158 @ fanduel. Pinnacle fair: New York Yankees +1.5 -182 (64.6%) / Washington Nationals -1.5 +182 (35.4%). EV board: New York Yankees +1.5: -2.3% (best -195 @ fanatics) | Washington Nationals -1.5: -4.3% (best +170 @ bovada). Sharp/public: SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_SPREAD: Pinnacle -1.5 vs public median 1.5 on Washington Nationals (Δ-3pt — sharps disagree with public shorter). Market signals: STEAM: 6 books range 3pts (median 1.5) || BOOK_DISAGREEMENT_HIGH: line spread 3pts across US books || PRICE_DISPERSION: 368c spread across US books (volatility, not edge). [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1876 / 48.9% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1330 / 54.4% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=963 / 48.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=783 / 52.1% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=783 / 54.1% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_GAME3_ROAD_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=738 / 54.7% WR / healthy / context-derived • TEAM_AGE_YOUNG_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=163 / 50.2% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=58 / 56.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=6 / 33.3% WR / unproven / context-derived • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=164 / 52.8% WR / toxic_fadeable • PUBLIC_PRIMETIME_FADE — MLB / ALL/LIFETIME / n=160 / 54.1% WR / healthy • PUBLIC_BIAS_PRIMETIME — MLB / ALL/LIFETIME / n=156 / 54.3% WR / healthy • +18 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: New York Yankees 5 @ Washington Nationals 3 · margin +2 vs -1.5

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