MLBJul 12, 2026, 1:11 PM

Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres

By Slam Wager AI

AI Pick
San Diego Padres (+115)
moneyline · confidence 62/100
Result
Won

Why the AI made this pick

The San Diego Padres are a +115 underdog with an EV signal of -0.9%. While there's no strong market signal like RLM or explicit steam towards them, their form in the last 5 games is 3-2. Pinnacle fair line is +117 for the Padres, which suggests their current price of +115 is slightly undervalued when accounting for vigorish. The Toronto Blue Jays' bullpen is TIRED, having thrown 197 pitches over 10.2 IP in the last 2 days, which could provide an edge to the Padres if the game goes beyond the starter. The HP Ump, Jen Pawol, has an over lean (10.8 R/g), which doesn't directly support the moneyline but could indicate a higher scoring game in general. The data confidence is 78/100. Sized at 1u — LEAN pick, borderline confidence, no clear strong signals. [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1876 / 48.9% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • TRAVEL_LONG_TRIP_3PLUS_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1648 / 51.5% WR / healthy • TRAVEL_LONG_TRIP_3PLUS_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:TRAVEL_LONG_TRIP_3PLUS_AWAY / n=1648 / 51.5% WR / healthy • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1330 / 54.4% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=963 / 48.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=783 / 52.1% WR / healthy • TRAVEL_GETAWAY_DAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=752 / 52.3% WR / healthy • MLB_PARK_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=487 / 54.8% WR / healthy / context-derived • TRAVEL_HOME_AFTER_LONG_TRIP_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=375 / 48.6% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_DAY_AFTER_NIGHT_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=212 / 50.0% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • TRAVEL_CROSS_COUNTRY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=156 / 51.0% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=13 / 55.8% WR / unproven • +13 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Toronto Blue Jays 4 @ San Diego Padres 5

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