MLBJul 12, 2026, 1:11 PM

Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
San Diego Padres +1.5 (-150)
spread · evidence score 65/100 · 1u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

The line has moved 9 cents in favor of the San Diego Padres +1.5 since opening. The Home Plate Umpire, Jen Pawol, has a strong over lean with 10.8 R/g, which is +1.71 runs above the league average. This favors the Padres covering the run line if runs are scored. Both bullpens are tired. The Blue Jays' starter Kevin Gausman has a 4.32 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 1.27 HR/9. Padres' Fernando Tatis Jr. has a 0.400 AVG and 2 HR in 21 PA against Gausman. Given the low EV and potential rain risk, this is a lean. Sized at 2u — confidence 65, low EV, taking it lighter. [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1876 / 48.9% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1850 / 51.9% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER / n=1330 / 54.4% WR / healthy • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=963 / 48.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=783 / 52.1% WR / healthy • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=783 / 54.1% WR / healthy • MLB_SERIES_GAME3_ROAD_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=738 / 54.7% WR / healthy • MLB_PARK_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=487 / 54.8% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_DAY_AFTER_NIGHT_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=212 / 50.0% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=58 / 56.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — MLB / ALL/LIFETIME_SPREAD / n=130 / 49.6% WR / toxic_fadeable • LINE_DISPERSION_SOFT — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME_SPREAD / n=82 / 47.6% WR / unproven • +3 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Toronto Blue Jays 4 @ San Diego Padres 5 · margin +1 vs 1.5

Closing line: 1.5

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