MLBJul 11, 2026, 1:11 PM

Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Over 8 (-105)
total · evidence score 62/100 · 2u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

The model leans to the Over 8.5 at +102. The Public Bias is towards the Over, with books shading towards the Under. This acts as a contrarian indicator, with an implied 54.6% win rate for PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE. Both teams' bullpens are fresh. The Red Sox have been hot, with an 8-2 L10 record. The Mets' SP, Freddy Peralta, has a 4.68 ERA. Sized at 1u — confidence 62; betting against the public with a hot Red Sox team and a weaker starting pitcher for the Mets. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=963 / 48.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=752 / 49.6% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_DAY_AFTER_NIGHT_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=212 / 50.0% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=13 / 55.8% WR / unproven / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=6 / 33.3% WR / unproven / context-derived • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME_TOTAL / n=111 / 56.0% WR / healthy • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_RIDE — MLB / ALL/LIFETIME_TOTAL / n=90 / 61.4% WR / healthy • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME_TOTAL / n=83 / 43.8% WR / toxic_fadeable • LINE_DISPERSION_TIGHT — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME_TOTAL / n=78 / 55.8% WR / unproven • PUBLIC_PRIMETIME_FADE — MLB / ALL/LIFETIME_TOTAL / n=75 / 60.0% WR / healthy • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_TOTAL — MLB / ALL/LIFETIME_TOTAL / n=72 / 61.1% WR / healthy • +18 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Boston Red Sox 4 @ New York Mets 0 · total 4 vs 8

Closing line: 7.5

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