MLBJul 11, 2026, 3:11 PM

Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers

By Slam Wager AI

AI Pick
Under 7.5 (-105)
total · confidence 62/100
Result
Won

Why the AI made this pick

This pick leans on the strong starting pitching matchup and the pitcher-friendly park, which presents a stronger fundamental case than short-term hitting streaks. Both Cristopher Sánchez (2.62 ERA) and Casey Mize (2.64 ERA) have been excellent this season, and they're pitching in Comerica Park, which has a Run Index of 95 and an HR Index of 88, suppressing offense. While the Tigers are on a hot streak (6.1 RS/g L10) and the umpire Vic Carapazza has an over lean, Mize has been particularly sharp in his last three outings. The market has also shown a drift toward the Under since opening. Multiple conflicting signals keep the confidence in check. Sized at 1u — confidence 62; strong underlying metrics are offset by a contrary umpire and a hot offense. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1474 / 51.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1330 / 54.4% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=752 / 49.6% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=58 / 56.0% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=13 / 55.8% WR / unproven / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=6 / 33.3% WR / unproven / context-derived • LINE_VELOCITY_AGAINST — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME_TOTAL / n=36 / 44.4% WR / unproven • LINE_VELOCITY_WITH — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME_TOTAL / n=29 / 57.1% WR / unproven • MLB_SP_L3_EDGE — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=63 / 47.6% WR / unproven

Result notes

Final: Philadelphia Phillies 4 @ Detroit Tigers 2 · total 6 vs 7.5

Closing line: 7.5

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