MLBJul 10, 2026, 4:16 PM

Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
New York Mets -1.5 (+155)
spread · evidence score 61/100 · 1u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

The Mets offer a slight EV despite the Red Sox having better recent form. Sonny Gray, pitching for the Red Sox, is having a strong season (ERA 2.61, WHIP 1.10). Nolan McLean for the Mets (ERA 3.73, WHIP 1.12) is also having a decent year despite a tough last outing. The Mets have a +0.2% EV at +155 based on the Pinnacle fair line of +154 (39.3%) for Mets -1.5. Sized at 1u — slight EV with both teams having fresh bullpens. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1474 / 51.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER / n=752 / 49.6% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_PARK_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=487 / 54.8% WR / healthy / context-derived • LINE_DISPERSION_SOFT — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=94 / 47.9% WR / unproven • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=13 / 55.8% WR / unproven / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=6 / 33.3% WR / unproven / context-derived • EV_2PCT — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=21 / 33.3% WR / toxic_blocked • EV_3PCT — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=8 / 50.0% WR / unproven • EV_5PCT — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=4 / 50.0% WR / unproven

Result notes

Final: Boston Red Sox 6 @ New York Mets 2 · margin -4 vs -1.5

Closing line: -1.5

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