New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals
By Slam Wager AI
Why the AI made this pick
While the Yankees have a better season record, their recent form is poor (3-7 L10) compared to the Nationals (6-4 L10). Washington's starting pitcher, Carson Palmquist, has a high ERA (7.11) but has only pitched 6.1 innings, making it a very small sample. This pick is a contrarian play against the Yankees as a public villain. Pinnacle fair price for Nationals +1.5 is -107 (51.7%), offering a -3.3% EV at -115. Sized at 1u — leaning on situational factors more than clear statistical edge. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~alias:MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY / n=1850 / 51.9% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1850 / 51.9% WR / toxic_fadeable • TRAVEL_LONG_TRIP_3PLUS_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1648 / 51.5% WR / healthy • TRAVEL_LONG_TRIP_3PLUS_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:TRAVEL_LONG_TRIP_3PLUS_AWAY / n=1648 / 51.5% WR / healthy • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1474 / 51.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1330 / 54.4% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER / n=752 / 49.6% WR / toxic_fadeable • TRAVEL_GETAWAY_DAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=752 / 52.3% WR / healthy • TRAVEL_HOME_AFTER_LONG_TRIP_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=375 / 48.6% WR / toxic_fadeable • +32 more signal tag(s)
Bad Beat
Lost by 0.5 against the spread (needed Washington Nationals +1.5).
Result notes
Final: New York Yankees 5 @ Washington Nationals 3 · margin -2 vs 1.5
Closing line: 1.5
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