MLBAug 29, 2026, 10:05 AM

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Boston Red Sox (+110)
moneyline · evidence score 82/100 · 2u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 8.9% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (12.3% raw projected EV) and a 5.9-point probability edge versus a 4.4% release floor. The public tier follows that conservative EV after all modeled lineup and calibration uncertainty. Projected score: 4.06-3.38 (7.44 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Boston Red Sox 6 @ New York Yankees 0

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