Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 4.9% EV (4.7-point probability edge) versus a 4.0% risk-adjusted release floor. Projected score: 4.81-4.62 (9.42 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.4-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Chicago Cubs 3 @ Pittsburgh Pirates 2 · total 5 vs 8

Available related receipts

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