MLBJul 24, 2026, 5:16 PM

Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Over 8 (-105)
total · evidence score 98/100 · 3u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 11.1% EV (7.8-point probability edge) versus a 4.0% risk-adjusted release floor. Projected score: 4.78-5.00 (9.78 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.4-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Cincinnati Reds 4 @ St. Louis Cardinals 2 · total 6 vs 8

Closing line: 8

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