MLBJul 26, 2026, 10:35 AM

Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 7.5 (-102)
total · evidence score 99/100 · 3u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 15.8% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 12.8% (8.0-point probability edge) versus a 4.0% release floor. Projected score: 3.23-3.84 (7.07 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Toronto Blue Jays 1 @ Boston Red Sox 6 · total 7 vs 7.5

Closing line: 7.5

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