Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox

Why the AI made this pick

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 15.8% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 12.8% (8.0-point probability edge) versus a 4.0% release floor. Projected score: 3.23-3.84 (7.07 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Toronto Blue Jays 1 @ Boston Red Sox 6 · total 7 vs 7.5

Related picks

• MLB

  Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays

  Shane Bieber Under 4.5 Ks 4.5 · 7/23/2026
  win
• MLB

  Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox

  Under 9.5 9.5 · 7/22/2026
  win
• MLB

  Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox

  Dean Kremer Under 4.5 Ks 4.5 · 7/22/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox

  Jake Bennett Under 4.5 Ks 4.5 · 7/22/2026
  win
• MLB

  Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

  Under 8.5 8.5 · 7/17/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox

  Boston Red Sox · 7/17/2026
  win