Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 26.1% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 22.9% (12.6-point probability edge) versus a 4.3% release floor. Projected score: 4.92-3.40 (8.32 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Chicago Cubs 2 @ St. Louis Cardinals 3

Available related receipts

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